Eurostat's structural business statistics (2024) counts 16,000 EU-based manufacturing enterprises with more than 250 employees. These represent our core ICP: organisations large enough to have complex, multi-tier supplier relationships; subject to CSDDD and LkSG due diligence obligations; and with procurement functions that own supply chain risk as a dedicated budget line.

We apply an annual contract value of €80,000. This is a value-based estimate: a large EU manufacturer with significant cross-border sourcing exposure faces disruption costs that routinely exceed this figure in a single incident. KPMG's 2026 supply chain survey found that 39% of senior executives named risk management as their top investment priority, with most companies increasing supply chain spend to 11–15% of revenue. At that budget scale, €80k represents a modest line item relative to the cost of the problem it addresses. The figure will be validated and revised through pilot engagements.

Sources: Eurostat sbs_sc_ovw (2024); KPMG The State of Next-Gen Supply Chain (2026)

Not all 16,000 manufacturers are equally addressable. We apply a 25% filter representing organisations with genuinely complex, multi-region supply chains and active cross-border regulatory exposure – the segment where Knovolo's causal intelligence layer delivers most value over incumbent tools.

The filter reflects two practical constraints: CSDDD scope thresholds, which apply most acutely to companies with significant third-country sourcing exposure; and multi-country supply chain complexity, which creates the strongest buying trigger for structured event intelligence over generic alert feeds.

We target 200 customers over a 10-year horizon at €80k ACV, producing €16M ARR – approximately 1.25% of TAM. For context, Everstream Analytics raised $50M at Series B in April 2023, led by Morgan Stanley Investment Management and StepStone Group, while reporting two consecutive years of doubled year-over-year bookings. At typical B2B SaaS Series B valuation multiples of 10–20x ARR, this implies ARR of $7.5M–25M – a comparable share of the same market. This is an inference from publicly available information, not a stated figure.

We consider our target conservative for one specific reason: the regulatory tailwinds driving enterprise buying decisions – CSDDD, LkSG, EUDR – did not exist for earlier market entrants. Compliance obligations are converting supply chain risk intelligence from a discretionary investment into a mandatory budget line.

Source: Everstream Analytics Series B press release (April 2023)